President Obama’s speech last night, with his statement about Israel returning to the 1967 borders, is another sign of impending war here in Israel, but not in the way that the Arabs hope for.
The political experts will analyze both his speech and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s speech next week in Congress to death, spinning it one way or another, but the important thing in understanding what happens in the Middle East is not to concentrate on America or Israel’s words, but the Arab reaction to those words, and more importantly, their actions.
Hamas has already rejected Obama’s speech, saying that Obama favors Israel. The Fatah faction has called for an emergency meeting to discuss it – not exactly a positive reaction. Even when he supposedly “gives” them what they “want” – it is not enough. This is typical, and is the core point to consider when looking at modern Israeli history.
The Arabs will never accept Israel’s right to exist, and they will go to war against us again and again. They cannot compromise – it is always all or nothing with them. Since we here in Israel will not give in and just commit suicide, there will always be ongoing conflict. They refused to compromise when the UN partitioned the region in 1947. After the unsuccesful attempt to drive all of the Jews out in May 1948 , (which they have the nerve to complain about, even now) instead of learning to live with the Jewish State, they decided to try again 19 years later. The Jews defended themselves again, and won. This paved the way for the Jews to be able to unite Jerusalem and visit the Kotel (Western Wall) for the first time in 19 years, and it enabled me and 300,000 other Jews to be able to live in Yehuda and Shomron (Judea and Samaria).
Now Obama has stupidly raised the Arab expectations again. They will wait in growing frustration for him to “do something” to make Israel go back to the 1967 borders. (Common sense says that if Obama sits and watches Assad kill thousands of his own people without doing anything, it is crazy to think he will go against Israel for building houses. Then again, if we were dealing with common sense the whole region would be at peace) When he doesn’t, they will explode and attack us, again.
The real question is how widespread the next war will be. It might be “just” an operation in Gaza to stop the inevitable rocket fire from there. It might include riots and terrorist attacks in Judea and Samaria – what the Arabs are calling the third intifada. It might include rocket fire from Hizballah in Lebanon. Or, it could be an even wider conflict which includes the Arabs from Syria and Egypt to pile on. The worst case scenario is all of these things together – which will represent a re-enaction of our War of Independence – with one major difference. Instead of attacking a state with 600,000 citizens, including many refugees from the Holocaust, poorly trained and without its own weapons industry – the Arabs will be attacking a country with 7 million people with the best trained army in the world (and yes, better than America’s for the one main reason that we are always fighting for our lives. Fighting thousands of miles from home is not the same kind of thing as fighting in your own backyard to protect your family).
The most ironic thing, of course is the fact that Obama said what he did to try to further the “peace process”. Not only will this not bring peace, but Obama will lose support of many Jews and pro-Israel Americans. For a short time he may gain support of the Arabs, but when they see his inaction they will start to complain, and their support will dwindle too.