Romney Will Win – OOOPS

I think Romney will win (G-d willing), and win big, on Tuesday. This is not just wishful thinking. This is due to my following of the polls and dissecting them – one example: every poll that shows Obama ahead and gives the breakdown of Democrat/Republican/Independents in the sample, shows that Obama’s margin is less than the additional Democrats in the sample. Even if you buy into the theory that the turnout of Democrats will be the same as it was in 2008 (which I definitely do not), you can’t help but see that Romney is winning a huge margin of the Independent vote, and there are more Democrats who are not going to vote for Obama than there are Republicans who will not vote for Romney.

I also look at the crowds that Romney is getting, especially in swing states (Colorado, Ohio, and last night in Pennsylvania). I look at the eye opening statistics that many papers have switched their endorsements from Obama in 2008 to Romney now.

I also think that the time honored assumption that when the economy is bad the voters vote for the challenger is correct.

My head and my heart are on the same wavelenght – and I am going to pray a bit too for good measure!!


Joining the Ranks

Today I officially joined the ranks of the unemployed. The horrible economy in America has finally affected the small business I worked for to the point that they needed to cut back staff, and I was laid off.

After working for six years at the same place I am frankly looking forward to some downtime to catch up with friends. I also want to get some of those perpetually postponed errands done.

I also hope to do some more blogging, and since I am a political “junkie” I will go from my obsessive following of the American elections to the obsessive following of the Israeli elections. I will try to write a few posts explaining how our system in Israel works (or doesn’t work, as the case may be). Stay tuned….

Some important dates: November 6th – not only is this election day in America, but it is primary day for the small religious party in Israel called Bayit Yehudi. Many in the national religious community will not only vote but will be curious to see whether the winner of the primary (between Zevulun Orlev and Naftali Bennet) will then forge a union with the other national religious party called Ichud HaLeumi.

November 25th – primary day for the Likud party. The ground rules for this primary have not been set up yet. The main question is regarding the “saved places” on the party list, as the Likud has now approved of its proposal to run with the Israel Beitenu list.

One thing is happening already – the pollsters are having a field day. Every day there are more polls trying to predict how many Knesset seats each party, or groups of parties, will garner.