Living in Israel is probably the embodiment of “living in interesting times”. Just when we thought the main threat to us was pushed off (at least temporarily, if not longer – I am refering of course to Iran and its nuclear capabilities) the whole region seems to be exploding.
Hizballah has more or less taken over Lebanon – the thugs with the guns usually win out, and Lebanon is no exception. Which means that when things start to go south in the country, Nasrallah will do what most Arab leaders do to distract the people, start fighting with Israel. This will probably include rockets over the border.
Then there is Egypt. Some may be thinking, naively, that the protests in Egypt will bring about the downfall of the dictatorship and perhaps democracy. Most of us in Israel are more worried about the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood. As Barry Rubin points out, he is worried, and he is worried that others are not worried. One quote is telling. He is asked if it is possible to have democracy and liberalism in Egypt and answers this way:
“One would need strong leaders, strong organizations, an ability to repress opposition, a clear program, and unity, among other things. None of this is present on the moderate democratic side. Again, I wish it was otherwise. More than any other country, reformers–though not all of them–have believed they can work with and then manipulate the Islamists. That seems like a mistake.”
Rubin writes here for PJ Media and puts forth three possible outcomes.
Here again, if the Muslim Brotherhood takes over Egypt they will at one point focus on fighting Israel, probably by arming Hamas in Gaza or more directly by going to war with us. More rockets, this time from the south.
The next war in Israel is coming that much closer.